Mochizuki vs. Xiao: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5

Q: Mochizuki vs. Xiao: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5

Prediction markets currently price this at 46%. A YES share costs 46.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 117.4% over 5d.

Chengdu Open, Qualification: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Linang Xiao$5 liquidity$0 volumecloses 5d

TennisSportsGames

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 46.0¢
Implied chance: 46.0%
Return if right: 117.4%
Spread cost: 22%

If you put in $100

You get 217.4 shares at 46.0¢ each.

YES wins: $217.39 back, a profit of $117.39. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $32.61 of that profit. Without it you would make $150.00.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 66.0¢
Implied chance: 66.0%
Return if right: 51.5%
Spread cost: 23%

If you put in $100

You get 151.5 shares at 66.0¢ each.

NO wins: $151.52 back, a profit of $51.52. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $15.15 of that profit. Without it you would make $66.67.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Sep 22, 10:00 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Shintaro Mochizuki and Linang Xiao in the Chengdu Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 22, 2026 at 2:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 10. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game. If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the first set has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution. If the match is permanently abandoned before the first set is completed, or if the first set has not been completed by October 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered unconditionally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the set played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round, including whether the set is decided by a tiebreak. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with the first set at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 additional game, resulting in at least 10 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be official ATP statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current