Set Handicap: Canas (-1.5) vs Michalski (+1.5)

Q: Set Handicap: Canas (-1.5) vs Michalski (+1.5)

Prediction markets currently price this at 50%. A YES share costs 50.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 100.0% over 8d.

Porto: Daniel Michalski vs Alejandro Moro Canas$49k liquidity$294 volumecloses 8d

TennisSportsGames

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 50.0¢
Implied chance: 50.0%
Return if right: 100.0%
Spread cost: 2%

If you put in $100

You get 200.0 shares at 50.0¢ each.

YES wins: $200.00 back, a profit of $100.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.02 of that profit. Without it you would make $102.02.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 51.0¢
Implied chance: 51.0%
Return if right: 96.1%
Spread cost: 2%

If you put in $100

You get 196.1 shares at 51.0¢ each.

NO wins: $196.08 back, a profit of $96.08. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.94 of that profit. Without it you would make $98.02.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 30, 05:17 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Alejandro Moro Canas and Daniel Michalski in the Porto, originally scheduled for August 31, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Canas" if Alejandro Moro Canas wins by 2 or more sets than Daniel Michalski, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Michalski." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Alejandro Moro Canas can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Michalski." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by September 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger results.

Source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current