Set Handicap: Kumstat (-1.5) vs Moeller (+1.5)

Q: Set Handicap: Kumstat (-1.5) vs Moeller (+1.5)

Prediction markets currently price this at 45%. A YES share costs 45.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 122.2% over 8d.

Hamburg: Jan Kumstat vs Marvin Moeller$3k liquidity$67 volumecloses 8d

TennisSportsGames

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 45.0¢
Implied chance: 45.0%
Return if right: 122.2%
Spread cost: 6%

If you put in $100

You get 222.2 shares at 45.0¢ each.

YES wins: $222.22 back, a profit of $122.22. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $7.66 of that profit. Without it you would make $129.89.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 58.0¢
Implied chance: 58.0%
Return if right: 72.4%
Spread cost: 6%

If you put in $100

You get 172.4 shares at 58.0¢ each.

NO wins: $172.41 back, a profit of $72.41. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.58 of that profit. Without it you would make $76.99.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 15, 10:25 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

No recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.

Headlines are matched on the names in “Set Handicap: Kumstat (-1.5) vs Moeller (+1.5)”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Jan Kumstat and Marvin Moeller in the Hamburg, originally scheduled for August 16, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Kumstat" if Jan Kumstat wins by 2 or more sets than Marvin Moeller, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Moeller." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger results.

Source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current