San Diego 2: Stefan Kozlov vs Colton Smith

Q: San Diego 2: Stefan Kozlov vs Colton Smith

Prediction markets currently price this at 41%. A YES share costs 41.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 143.9% over 4d.

San Diego 2: Stefan Kozlov vs Colton Smith$94k liquidity$14k volumecloses 4d

TennisSportsGames

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 41.0¢
Implied chance: 41.0%
Return if right: 143.9%
Spread cost: 6%

If you put in $100

You get 243.9 shares at 41.0¢ each.

YES wins: $243.90 back, a profit of $143.90. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $9.26 of that profit. Without it you would make $153.16.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 62.0¢
Implied chance: 62.0%
Return if right: 61.3%
Spread cost: 6%

If you put in $100

You get 161.3 shares at 62.0¢ each.

NO wins: $161.29 back, a profit of $61.29. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.00 of that profit. Without it you would make $65.29.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Sep 22, 07:00 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Headlines are matched on the names in “San Diego 2: Stefan Kozlov vs Colton Smith”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Stefan Kozlov and Colton Smith in the San Diego 2, originally scheduled for September 21, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Stefan Kozlov' if Stefan Kozlov advances against Colton Smith. This market will resolve to 'Colton Smith' if Colton Smith advances against Stefan Kozlov. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current