Set Handicap: Heide (-1.5) vs Marques (+1.5)

Q: Set Handicap: Heide (-1.5) vs Marques (+1.5)

Prediction markets currently price this at 73%. A YES share costs 73.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 37.0% over 7d.

Porto: Gustavo Heide vs Goncalo Marques$4k liquidity$35 volumecloses 7d

TennisSportsGames

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 73.0¢
Implied chance: 73.0%
Return if right: 37.0%
Spread cost: 12%

If you put in $100

You get 137.0 shares at 73.0¢ each.

YES wins: $136.99 back, a profit of $36.99. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.86 of that profit. Without it you would make $41.84.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 32.0¢
Implied chance: 32.0%
Return if right: 212.5%
Spread cost: 11%

If you put in $100

You get 312.5 shares at 32.0¢ each.

NO wins: $312.50 back, a profit of $212.50. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $26.48 of that profit. Without it you would make $238.98.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 30, 11:30 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Figures to face off against Marques for GOP-redistricted Alabama House seatThe Hill · 19d ago

Headlines are matched on the names in “Set Handicap: Heide (-1.5) vs Marques (+1.5)”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Gustavo Heide and Goncalo Marques in the Porto, originally scheduled for August 31, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Heide" if Gustavo Heide wins by 2 or more sets than Goncalo Marques, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Marques." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Gustavo Heide can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Marques." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by September 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger results.

Source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current