Set Handicap: Alex Barrena (-1.5) vs Valentin Garay (+1.5)

Q: Set Handicap: Alex Barrena (-1.5) vs Valentin Garay (+1.5)

Prediction markets currently price this at 85%. A YES share costs 85.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 17.6% over 4d.

Buenos Aires 2: Valentin Garay vs Alex Barrena$7k liquidity$212 volumecloses 4d

TennisSportsGames

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 85.0¢
Implied chance: 85.0%
Return if right: 17.6%
Spread cost: 4%

If you put in $100

You get 117.6 shares at 85.0¢ each.

YES wins: $117.65 back, a profit of $17.65. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.70 of that profit. Without it you would make $18.34.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 16.0¢
Implied chance: 16.0%
Return if right: 525.0%
Spread cost: 4%

If you put in $100

You get 625.0 shares at 16.0¢ each.

NO wins: $625.00 back, a profit of $525.00. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $20.16 of that profit. Without it you would make $545.16.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Sep 22, 09:00 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Set Handicap: Alex Barrena (-1.5) vs Valentin Garay (+1.5)”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex Barrena and Valentin Garay in the Buenos Aires 2, originally scheduled for September 21, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Alex Barrena" if Alex Barrena wins by 2 or more sets than Valentin Garay, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Valentin Garay." If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the deciding set has begun when the match ends, Alex Barrena can no longer win by 2 or more sets, and this market will resolve to "Valentin Garay." If the match is canceled before play begins, or a result has not been determined by October 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger results.

Source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current