Porto: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Alex Barrena

Q: Porto: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Alex Barrena

Prediction markets currently price this at 95%. A YES share costs 95.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 5.3% over 6d.

Porto: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Alex Barrena$243k liquidity$14k volumecloses 6d

TennisSportsGames

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 95.0¢
Implied chance: 95.0%
Return if right: 5.3%
Spread cost: 18%

If you put in $100

You get 105.3 shares at 95.0¢ each.

YES wins: $105.26 back, a profit of $5.26. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.12 of that profit. Without it you would make $6.38.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 7.0¢
Implied chance: 7.0%
Return if right: 1328.6%
Spread cost: 15%

If you put in $100

You get 1428.6 shares at 7.0¢ each.

NO wins: $1428.57 back, a profit of $1328.57. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $238.10 of that profit. Without it you would make $1566.67.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Sep 1, 03:10 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

No recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.

Headlines are matched on the names in “Porto: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Alex Barrena”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Gilles Arnaud Bailly and Alex Barrena in the Porto, originally scheduled for August 31, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Gilles Arnaud Bailly' if Gilles Arnaud Bailly advances against Alex Barrena. This market will resolve to 'Alex Barrena' if Alex Barrena advances against Gilles Arnaud Bailly. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current