Aguilar vs. Tien: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5

Q: Aguilar vs. Tien: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5

Prediction markets currently price this at 48%. A YES share costs 48.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 108.3% over 8d.

National Bank Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Learner Tien$3k liquidity$0 volumecloses 8d

TennisSportsGames

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 48.0¢
Implied chance: 48.0%
Return if right: 108.3%
Spread cost: 63%

If you put in $100

You get 208.3 shares at 48.0¢ each.

YES wins: $208.33 back, a profit of $108.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $183.82 of that profit. Without it you would make $292.16.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 97.0¢
Implied chance: 97.0%
Return if right: 3.1%
Spread cost: 91%

If you put in $100

You get 103.1 shares at 97.0¢ each.

NO wins: $103.09 back, a profit of $3.09. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $31.14 of that profit. Without it you would make $34.23.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 09:26 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Aguilar vs. Tien: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market refers to the tennis match between Daniel Merida Aguilar and Learner Tien in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 11, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in set 2 equals or exceeds 11. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any tiebreak in set 2 counts as one (1) game toward the total. If set 2 is not completed for any reason (including the match ending before set 2 is reached), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.

Source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current