Arizona passes drug cartel ballot measure?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 75.0¢
- Implied chance
- 75.0%
- Return if right
- 33.3%
- Spread cost
- 12%
If you put in $100
You get 133.3 shares at 75.0¢ each.
YES wins: $133.33 back, a profit of $33.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.60 of that profit. Without it you would make $37.93.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 30.0¢
- Implied chance
- 30.0%
- Return if right
- 233.3%
- Spread cost
- 11%
If you put in $100
You get 333.3 shares at 30.0¢ each.
NO wins: $333.33 back, a profit of $233.33. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $30.30 of that profit. Without it you would make $263.64.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Arizona man arrested after allegedly emailing White House bomb threat to Tucson news stationFox News · 2d ago
- Arizona candidate said she felt like a 'hypocrite' for not reporting rapeABC News · 2d ago
- Arizona congressional candidate reports rape while repairing campaign signsCBS News · 2d ago
- Arizona candidate says she was raped and thinks it may have been politically motivatedNBC News · 2d ago
- Arizona House candidate says she was raped while out fixing campaign signsThe Washington Post · 2d ago
- Arizona congressional candidate says she was raped while fixing campaign signCBS News · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Arizona passes drug cartel ballot measure?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Arizona Proposition 317 is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would declare drug cartels to be terrorist organizations, among other items. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/).
Source: https://azsos.gov/