Arizona passes ballot measure restricting transgender school and athletic access?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 66.0¢
- Implied chance
- 66.0%
- Return if right
- 51.5%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 151.5 shares at 66.0¢ each.
YES wins: $151.52 back, a profit of $51.52. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.16 of that profit. Without it you would make $52.67.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 35.0¢
- Implied chance
- 35.0%
- Return if right
- 185.7%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 285.7 shares at 35.0¢ each.
NO wins: $285.71 back, a profit of $185.71. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.14 of that profit. Without it you would make $189.86.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Arizona passes ballot measure restricting transgender school…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Arizona HCR 2003 is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain sports leagues, locker rooms, restrooms, and other spaces based on the sex recorded on an individual's original birth certificate. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/).