Arizona passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 68.0¢
- Implied chance
- 68.0%
- Return if right
- 47.1%
- Spread cost
- 9%
If you put in $100
You get 147.1 shares at 68.0¢ each.
YES wins: $147.06 back, a profit of $47.06. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.46 of that profit. Without it you would make $51.52.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 36.0¢
- Implied chance
- 36.0%
- Return if right
- 177.8%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 277.8 shares at 36.0¢ each.
NO wins: $277.78 back, a profit of $177.78. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $16.34 of that profit. Without it you would make $194.12.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
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- Former Arizona fraternity leader sentenced to jail time after pledge dies in off-campus hazingFox News · 4d ago
- Ex-Arizona frat leader gets jail time after pledge died of alcohol poisoningCBS News · 4d ago
- Split among Mormon women could matter in Arizona governor's raceABC News · 4d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Arizona passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from votin…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Arizona Proposition 144 (HCR 2001) is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arizona in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would amend the Arizona Constitution to specify that only citizens of the United States may vote and register to vote in Arizona elections and require voters to present government-issued proof of identity to cast a ballot, whether in person or by mail, among other items. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arizona statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Arizona, including the Arizona Secretary of State (https://azsos.gov/).