Anthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 69.0¢
- Implied chance
- 69.0%
- Return if right
- 44.9%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 144.9 shares at 69.0¢ each.
YES wins: $144.93 back, a profit of $44.93. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.06 of that profit. Without it you would make $45.99.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 32.0¢
- Implied chance
- 32.0%
- Return if right
- 212.5%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 312.5 shares at 32.0¢ each.
NO wins: $312.50 back, a profit of $212.50. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.96 of that profit. Without it you would make $217.46.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- OpenAI and Anthropic Are Quietly Rehearsing for the Day After an AI CatastropheDecrypt · 2d ago
- Anthropic, OpenAI Clouding Other IPO Prospects: RuderBloomberg · 4d ago
- Chinese AI Labs Catch Up to OpenAI, AnthropicBloomberg · 7d ago
- FTC launches probe into OpenAI, Anthropic over model consumer risksThe Hill · 10d ago
- AI safety fears put OpenAI and Anthropic in the FTC's crosshairsAxios · 11d ago
- US trade regulator opens investigation into AI giants including Anthropic and OpenAIThe Guardian · 11d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Anthropic or OpenAI: higher IPO closing market cap?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if the official closing price for Anthropic's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day. This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for Anthropic's market capitalization on its first trading day. This market will resolve to the company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, if the other company does not complete an IPO within the market timeframe. This market will resolve to the IPOed company as soon as it becomes impossible for the other company to complete an IPO within the market timeframe, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. This market will resolve 50-50 if: - Neither IPO occurs by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. - Both Anthropic and OpenAI complete an IPO within this market's timeframe, and their IPO closing market capitalizations are exactly equal. - Both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.