Anthropic lab leak by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.8¢
- Implied chance
- 3.8%
- Return if right
- 2531.6%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 2631.6 shares at 3.8¢ each.
YES wins: $2631.58 back, a profit of $2531.58. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $108.15 of that profit. Without it you would make $2639.73.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.5¢
- Implied chance
- 96.5%
- Return if right
- 3.6%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 103.6 shares at 96.5¢ each.
NO wins: $103.63 back, a profit of $3.63. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.16 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.79.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- OpenAI, Anthropic CEOs call for global AI regulation at UNAl Jazeera · 4h ago
- Anthropic Says Claude Found Something Big in DNA. It Just Doesn't Know WhatDecrypt · 5h ago
- OpenAI, Anthropic CEOs at UN call for global AI cooperation: 'We are at a crossroads'ABC News · 5h ago
- US rejects pleas from OpenAI, Anthropic for global AI standardsBBC Business · 6h ago
- Anthropic says its biology lab has already found something bigTechCrunch · 6h ago
- AI leaders urge caution at UN, with Anthropic chief pledging to slow downFrance 24 · 6h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Anthropic lab leak by December 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a pathogen developed, modified, or handled at a wet lab operated by Anthropic is confirmed to have escaped that facility between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Confirmation that the pathogen escaped the laboratory, research facility, diagnostic facility, or other controlled laboratory setting in which it was contained is required. Investigations, speculation, statements that an escape is possible or has not been ruled out, or statements unverified by a consensus of credible reporting will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.