Anthony Albanese out as Prime Minister of Australia by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 9.9¢
- Implied chance
- 9.9%
- Return if right
- 910.1%
- Spread cost
- 29%
If you put in $100
You get 1010.1 shares at 9.9¢ each.
YES wins: $1010.10 back, a profit of $910.10. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $378.79 of that profit. Without it you would make $1288.89.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 95.5¢
- Implied chance
- 95.5%
- Return if right
- 4.7%
- Spread cost
- 39%
If you put in $100
You get 104.7 shares at 95.5¢ each.
NO wins: $104.71 back, a profit of $4.71. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $7.76.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Anthony Albanese out as Prime Minister of Australia by Decem…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anthony Albanese ceases to be the Prime Minister of Australia for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Anthony Albanese's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Australian government and Anthony Albanese; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.