Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 37.0¢
- Implied chance
- 37.0%
- Return if right
- 170.3%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 270.3 shares at 37.0¢ each.
YES wins: $270.27 back, a profit of $170.27. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.70 of that profit. Without it you would make $173.97.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 64.0¢
- Implied chance
- 64.0%
- Return if right
- 56.3%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 156.3 shares at 64.0¢ each.
NO wins: $156.25 back, a profit of $56.25. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.23 of that profit. Without it you would make $57.48.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
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How this market resolves
NATO's Article 4 allows any member to call for consultations with allies if it believes its territorial integrity, political independence, or security to be threatened. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any NATO member invokes Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Article 4 is considered invoked as soon as a member formally requests consultations with NATO allies under Article 4, regardless of whether the request is later revoked. For example, Poland's request for consultations on September 10, 2025, or Estonia's request on September 24, 2025 would each qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If a member state only expresses intent to or is considering invoking Article 4, that alone does not suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO; authoritative statements from the requesting member government may also be used.