Alcatraz reopened in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.4¢
- Implied chance
- 3.4%
- Return if right
- 2841.2%
- Spread cost
- 33%
If you put in $100
You get 2941.2 shares at 3.4¢ each.
YES wins: $2941.18 back, a profit of $2841.18. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1406.65 of that profit. Without it you would make $4247.83.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 98.8¢
- Implied chance
- 98.8%
- Return if right
- 1.2%
- Spread cost
- 48%
If you put in $100
You get 101.2 shares at 98.8¢ each.
NO wins: $101.21 back, a profit of $1.21. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.14 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.35.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Former ‘Alligator Alcatraz’ detainee says he was placed in phone booth-sized cage for 15 hoursNBC News · 7d ago
- Alligator Alcatraz had cramped conditions, "small metal enclosures," watchdog findsCBS News · 10d ago
- Florida’s ‘Alligator Alcatraz’ confined migrants in 'small metal enclosures': DHS internal watchdogThe Hill · 10d ago
- Alligator Alcatraz held detainees in cages the size of phone booths, DHS watchdog saysThe Guardian · 10d ago
- Immigrants held in small outdoor cages at 'Alligator Alcatraz' in Florida, investigators findBBC News · 10d ago
- Report finds 'Alligator Alcatraz' held immigrants in cages the size of phone boothsNBC News · 10d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Alcatraz reopened in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.