Alaska passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 97.0¢
- Implied chance
- 97.0%
- Return if right
- 3.1%
- Spread cost
- 41%
If you put in $100
You get 103.1 shares at 97.0¢ each.
YES wins: $103.09 back, a profit of $3.09. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.17 of that profit. Without it you would make $5.26.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 7.0¢
- Implied chance
- 7.0%
- Return if right
- 1328.6%
- Spread cost
- 30%
If you put in $100
You get 1428.6 shares at 7.0¢ each.
NO wins: $1428.57 back, a profit of $1328.57. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $571.43 of that profit. Without it you would make $1900.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Trump shrugs off South Korea's uncertainty on $54B Alaska energy investmentThe Hill · 2d ago
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- Trump threatens to double tariffs on South Korea if they do not pay for Alaska natural gas pipeline – as it happenedThe Guardian · 3d ago
- Trump unveils South Korean investment in Alaska gas pipelineCBS News · 4d ago
- Trump announces $54 billion South Korean investment in Alaska natural gas projectCBS News · 4d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Alaska passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Alaska Ballot Measure 3 is a citizen-initiated measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Alaska in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would amend state law to provide that only a person who is a citizen of the United States may vote in any election in Alaska. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Alaska statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Alaska, including the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/).