Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.5¢
- Implied chance
- 3.5%
- Return if right
- 2757.1%
- Spread cost
- 13%
If you put in $100
You get 2857.1 shares at 3.5¢ each.
YES wins: $2857.14 back, a profit of $2757.14. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $421.55 of that profit. Without it you would make $3178.69.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.4¢
- Implied chance
- 97.4%
- Return if right
- 2.7%
- Spread cost
- 15%
If you put in $100
You get 102.7 shares at 97.4¢ each.
NO wins: $102.67 back, a profit of $2.67. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.48 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.15.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Treasury Secretary Invokes Bitcoin Creator Satoshi Nakamoto in Plea for Clarity ActDecrypt · 11d ago
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Urges Lawmakers to Vote on Clarity Act, Quotes Satoshi NakamotoBitcoin Magazine · 11d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if definitive evidence confirming that Adam Back is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to, verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence. If Satoshi Nakamoto is conclusively identified as a group or collective rather than a single individual, definitive evidence that Adam Back was a member of that group will qualify. Unverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, jokes, sarcasm, or unsubstantiated reports will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.