Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.5¢
- Implied chance
- 3.5%
- Return if right
- 2757.1%
- Spread cost
- 34%
If you put in $100
You get 2857.1 shares at 3.5¢ each.
YES wins: $2857.14 back, a profit of $2757.14. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1398.18 of that profit. Without it you would make $4155.32.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 98.8¢
- Implied chance
- 98.8%
- Return if right
- 1.2%
- Spread cost
- 50%
If you put in $100
You get 101.2 shares at 98.8¢ each.
NO wins: $101.21 back, a profit of $1.21. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.19 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.41.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Iranian hackers attacked our water systems. Here are 5 things our leaders need to do nowFox News · 5h ago
- Oil prices climb as Iranian demands cloud outlook for Strait of HormuzAl Jazeera · 11h ago
- Iranian leaders demand U.S. pay for war damage or will keep Strait of Hormuz closedCBS News · 14h ago
- Iranian Demands Disrupt Trump’s Plan to End the WarYahoo Finance · 22h ago
- ‘The wealthy poor’: Soaring food prices hurt Iranian familiesAl Jazeera · 1d ago
- Details on Oman's potential Strait of Hormuz deal; Iranian prisoner describes poor conditionsCBS News · 3d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.