Will the Chicago Cubs win more than 86.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season?

Q: Will the Chicago Cubs win more than 86.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season?

Prediction markets currently price this at 90%. A YES share costs 90.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 11.1% over 1.8mo.

MLB: 2026 Regular Season Win Totals$2k liquidity$685 volumecloses 1.8mo

SportsMLBbaseballMajor League Baseball

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 90.0¢
Implied chance: 90.0%
Return if right: 11.1%
Spread cost: 29%

If you put in $100

You get 111.1 shares at 90.0¢ each.

YES wins: $111.11 back, a profit of $11.11. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.50 of that profit. Without it you would make $15.61.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 17.0¢
Implied chance: 17.0%
Return if right: 488.2%
Spread cost: 24%

If you put in $100

You get 588.2 shares at 17.0¢ each.

NO wins: $588.24 back, a profit of $488.24. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $152.51 of that profit. Without it you would make $640.74.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 10:31 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted3 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

Dodgers ruin baseball with sixth straight loss, get swept for second consecutive series by Chicago CubsFox News · 5d ago

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the Chicago Cubs win more than 86.5 games in the 2026 M…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "O 86.5" if the Chicago Cubs win more than 86.5 games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season. If at any point it becomes statistically impossible for the Chicago Cubs to record more than 86.5 wins per the rules of the MLB, the corresponding market will resolve to "U 86.5". If the MLB Regular Season is cancelled, partially completed, or postponed after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/standings/); however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Source: https://www.mlb.com/standings/