2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
BUY YES
- Cost
- 13.0¢
- Implied chance
- 13.0%
- Return if right
- 669.2%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 769.2 shares at 13.0¢ each.
YES wins: $769.23 back, a profit of $669.23. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $30.77 of that profit. Without it you would make $700.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 88.0¢
- Implied chance
- 88.0%
- Return if right
- 13.6%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 113.6 shares at 88.0¢ each.
NO wins: $113.64 back, a profit of $13.64. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.65 of that profit. Without it you would make $14.29.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 05:21 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
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Headlines are matched on the names in “2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate and the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chambers. For determining Senate control, all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For determining House control, all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Senate and House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.