Will Trump pardon anyone by September 30?

Q: Will Trump pardon anyone by September 30?

Prediction markets currently price this at 94%. A YES share costs 94.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 6.4% over 7d.

Will Trump pardon anyone by...?$9k liquidity$1k volumecloses 7d

TrumppardonPolitics

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 94.0¢
Implied chance: 94.0%
Return if right: 6.4%
Spread cost: 31%

If you put in $100

You get 106.4 shares at 94.0¢ each.

YES wins: $106.38 back, a profit of $6.38. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.91 of that profit. Without it you would make $9.29.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 11.0¢
Implied chance: 11.0%
Return if right: 809.1%
Spread cost: 25%

If you put in $100

You get 909.1 shares at 11.0¢ each.

NO wins: $909.09 back, a profit of $809.09. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $267.38 of that profit. Without it you would make $1076.47.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest news

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No recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Trump pardon anyone by September 30?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.