Will the USS Abraham Lincoln depart CENTCOM by October 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 94.0¢
- Implied chance
- 94.0%
- Return if right
- 6.4%
- Spread cost
- 61%
If you put in $100
You get 106.4 shares at 94.0¢ each.
YES wins: $106.38 back, a profit of $6.38. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $9.90 of that profit. Without it you would make $16.28.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 22.0¢
- Implied chance
- 22.0%
- Return if right
- 354.5%
- Spread cost
- 42%
If you put in $100
You get 454.5 shares at 22.0¢ each.
NO wins: $454.55 back, a profit of $354.55. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $259.74 of that profit. Without it you would make $614.29.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 19, 06:10 PM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- CENTCOM commander meets with troops on USS Abraham Lincoln amid concerns for sailors' mental healthCBS News · 2d ago
- CENTCOM commander tries to ease concerns about USS Abraham LincolnCBS News · 2d ago
- CENTCOM commander meets with troops on USS Abraham Lincoln as critics slam conditionsCBS News · 2d ago
- Centcom commander addresses mental health concerns for troops on USS Abraham LincolnThe Hill · 3d ago
- CENTCOM commander touts USS Abraham Lincoln mental health record after more than 260 days without port callFox News · 3d ago
- Centcom commander visits USS Abraham Lincoln amid questions about conditions on shipThe Hill · 4d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the USS Abraham Lincoln depart CENTCOM by October 31, 2…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) departs the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The Lincoln will be considered to have departed the CENTCOM area of responsibility upon confirmation by the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, or U.S. Indo-Pacific Command that the ship has departed the CENTCOM area of responsibility or entered the any other area of operations, or upon a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the ship has physically exited the CENTCOM area of responsibility. The departure must occur by the listed deadline. In the event of ambiguity as to whether the USS Abraham Lincoln left the specified area by the specified time, this market will remain open until the earlier of: (i) confirmation that the USS Abraham Lincoln left the specified area by the listed deadline, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) following the listed deadline. The market will resolve based on the totality of information available at that time. If there is material ambiguity as to whether the USS Abraham Lincoln left the specified area by that time, this market will resolve to “No.” Port calls, temporary stops, crew liberty at an intermediate port, or other movements within the CENTCOM area of responsibility will not qualify. Announcements, orders, schedules, or reports that the ship will depart, is preparing to depart, or is awaiting relief will not qualify absent confirmation that the qualifying departure has occurred. A qualifying departure will count regardless of the ship's subsequent movements or tasking. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States government and military, including the U.S. Navy, the Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, and U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and a consensus of credible reporting.