Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.1% before 2027?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 71.0¢
- Implied chance
- 71.0%
- Return if right
- 40.8%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 140.8 shares at 71.0¢ each.
YES wins: $140.85 back, a profit of $40.85. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.01 of that profit. Without it you would make $42.86.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 31.0¢
- Implied chance
- 31.0%
- Return if right
- 222.6%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 322.6 shares at 31.0¢ each.
NO wins: $322.58 back, a profit of $222.58. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $10.75 of that profit. Without it you would make $233.33.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
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- Should I put my nest egg in a 30-year Treasury bond?MarketWatch · 1d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.1% before 2027?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
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