Will Shein's closing IPO market cap be at least 400B HKD?

Shein IPO Closing Market Cap Above __?$1k liquidity$2k volumecloses 1.3y
IPOIPOsFinanceBusiness
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Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY YES

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Cost
4.2¢
Implied chance
4.2%
Return if right
2281.0%
Spread cost
25%

If you put in $100

You get 2381.0 shares at 4.2¢ each.

YES wins: $2380.95 back, a profit of $2280.95. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $744.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $3025.00.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

Buy NO on Polymarket

BUY NO

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We keep it in one place with the price you saw, and email you when it settles or moves sharply. It is free, and the screener stays open to everyone either way.

Cost
97.8¢
Implied chance
97.8%
Return if right
2.2%
Spread cost
32%

If you put in $100

You get 102.2 shares at 97.8¢ each.

NO wins: $102.25 back, a profit of $2.25. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.06 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.31.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 28, 08:26 PM

Latest news

headlines link to their publishers

No recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Shein's closing IPO market cap be at least 400B HKD?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Shein's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading is greater than or equal to the listed value. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No”. Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. This market will resolve based on market capitalization in Hong Kong Dollars (HKD). If the currency of the primary exchange is not HKD, this market will resolve based on a converted value to HKD, using the conversion rate at the time of market close of the primary exchange on the company's first day of trading. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page. The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading. In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.

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Will Shein's closing IPO market cap be at least 400B HKD? (4% chance) | PullToPar