Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by August 31?

• ‘The enemy is tearing our city apart’: terror in Kyiv as Russia ramps up attacksThe Guardian · 1h ago
• US Designates Russia's A7 Network as Transnational Criminal OrganizationDecrypt · 5h ago
• Russia’s Latest Propaganda? A.I.-Generated War Songs.The New York Times · 7h ago
• Russia tries to freeze Ukraine as it suffers record casualties and retreatsAl Jazeera · 8h ago
• Live: Kyiv in ‘very dramatic situation’ as Russia steps up bombing, mayor saysFrance 24 · 11h ago
• A Front Line at the Border: How Russia Uses Migrants as Weapons Against EuropeThe New York Times · 12h ago

Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by August 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.450545° N, 37.181493° E in Novyi Donbas, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location in Novyi Donbas: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Novyi+Donbas1.png Novyi Donbas Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Novyi+Donbas2.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/fsRaQXJ6vikXNKYu9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.