Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by September 30?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 0.8¢
- Implied chance
- 0.8%
- Return if right
- 12400.0%
- Spread cost
- 44%
If you put in $100
You get 12500.0 shares at 0.8¢ each.
YES wins: $12500.00 back, a profit of $12400.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $9722.22 of that profit. Without it you would make $22122.22.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.9¢
- Implied chance
- 99.9%
- Return if right
- 0.1%
- Spread cost
- 78%
If you put in $100
You get 100.1 shares at 99.9¢ each.
NO wins: $100.10 back, a profit of $0.10. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.35 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.45.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Russia Finds No Plague or Other Pathogens in Siberia Lab DeathBloomberg · 3h ago
- OpenAI users in Russia, Iran used models to push political agenda online, in mediaThe Hill · 9h ago
- Putin pledges Russia’s support to end US-led war on IranAl Jazeera · 9h ago
- Kushner, Witkoff to pitch "new ideas" to end Russia-Ukraine warAxios · 10h ago
- Russia’s Silence on Possible Plague Outbreak Stokes Fears of a Cover-UpThe New York Times · 14h ago
- Trump aide's daughter pictured with pro-Russia politicianCBS News · 16h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by September 30?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kupyansjk-Vuzlovij railroad station located between Zaliznychna Vulytsia and Zaliznychnykiv Ploshcha (49.654359° N, 37.644326° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi+1.png Train Station Location in Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi+2.png Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi+3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/2DWkLwtmD3dTUGbc8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.