Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 78.9¢
- Implied chance
- 78.9%
- Return if right
- 26.7%
- Spread cost
- 26%
If you put in $100
You get 126.7 shares at 78.9¢ each.
YES wins: $126.74 back, a profit of $26.74. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $9.31 of that profit. Without it you would make $36.05.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 31.9¢
- Implied chance
- 31.9%
- Return if right
- 213.5%
- Spread cost
- 23%
If you put in $100
You get 313.5 shares at 31.9¢ each.
NO wins: $313.48 back, a profit of $213.48. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $63.88 of that profit. Without it you would make $277.36.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 05:35 PM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- OpenAI Says Its Next AI Model Astra May Be Too Dangerous, Pauses DevelopmentDecrypt · 3h ago
- OpenAI acquires NextSlide to support ChatGPT developmentYahoo Finance · 8h ago
- Monica Barbaro Teases Luca Guadagnino’s OpenAI Film ‘Artificial,’ Addresses Timothée Chalamet’s Ballet CommentsThe Hollywood Reporter · 2d ago
- OpenAI acquires presentation startup NextSlideTechCrunch · 2d ago
- OpenAI acquires presentation startup NextSlideYahoo Finance · 2d ago
- OpenAI to pause some work on AI model Astra due to security concernsThe Guardian · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting. Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.