Will Nigel Farage win less than 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 1.4¢
- Implied chance
- 1.4%
- Return if right
- 7042.9%
- Spread cost
- 32%
If you put in $100
You get 7142.9 shares at 1.4¢ each.
YES wins: $7142.86 back, a profit of $7042.86. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3383.46 of that profit. Without it you would make $10426.32.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.5¢
- Implied chance
- 99.5%
- Return if right
- 0.5%
- Spread cost
- 48%
If you put in $100
You get 100.5 shares at 99.5¢ each.
NO wins: $100.50 back, a profit of $0.50. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.46 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.96.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 06:18 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Nigel Farage vows to deport foreign criminals from UK prisonsAl Jazeera · 5h ago
- What do Clacton voters want from their next MP?BBC Politics · 2d ago
- The influencers taking on far-right leader Nigel FarageAl Jazeera · 2d ago
- Badenoch pens letter to Clacton ahead of by-electionBBC Politics · 3d ago
- The serial candidates standing against Farage in the Clacton by-electionBBC Politics · 4d ago
- Ballot paper for Clacton by-election is longest in British electoral historyBBC Politics · 9d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Nigel Farage win less than 40% of votes in the Clacton …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Other outcomes in Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %
- Will Nigel Farage win 40–50% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
- Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
- Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
- Will Nigel Farage win 50–60% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
- Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?