Does Ox Alpha belong to Microsoft?

Q: Does Ox Alpha belong to Microsoft?

Prediction markets currently price this at 1%. A YES share costs 1.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 9900.0% over 4.2mo.

Which company does Ox Alpha belong to?$2k liquidity$1k volumecloses 4.2mo

AITechOpenCodeOx AlphaVideo AIAI Releases

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 1.0¢
Implied chance: 1.0%
Return if right: 9900.0%
Spread cost: 45%

If you put in $100

You get 10000.0 shares at 1.0¢ each.

YES wins: $10000.00 back, a profit of $9900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $8181.82 of that profit. Without it you would make $18081.82.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.9¢
Implied chance: 99.9%
Return if right: 0.1%
Spread cost: 82%

If you put in $100

You get 100.1 shares at 99.9¢ each.

NO wins: $100.10 back, a profit of $0.10. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.45 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.55.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 25, 03:14 AM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation. This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements. A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks. If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”. If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.