Another Iranian diplomat expelled by August 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 23.0¢
- Implied chance
- 23.0%
- Return if right
- 334.8%
- Spread cost
- 14%
If you put in $100
You get 434.8 shares at 23.0¢ each.
YES wins: $434.78 back, a profit of $334.78. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $53.02 of that profit. Without it you would make $387.80.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 82.0¢
- Implied chance
- 82.0%
- Return if right
- 22.0%
- Spread cost
- 15%
If you put in $100
You get 122.0 shares at 82.0¢ each.
NO wins: $121.95 back, a profit of $21.95. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.83 of that profit. Without it you would make $25.79.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- NATO ‘prepared’ to defend allies amid report of Iranian strike plansAl Jazeera · 12h ago
- O'Reilly: Trump can't let Iranians 'make him look like a loser'The Hill · 16h ago
- US charges 17 Iranians over 'massive' cyber theft campaignBBC News · 20h ago
- UAE Reports Iranian Missile Attack as Tensions Rise | Horizons Middle East & Africa 8/19/2026Bloomberg · 23h ago
- Iranian academic writes of US detention 'hell' over link to 1979 hostage crisisBBC News · 1d ago
- DOJ secures indictment of 17 Iranians accused of 'massive' cyber theft campaignThe Hill · 1d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Another Iranian diplomat expelled by August 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.