Another Iranian diplomat expelled by August 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 0.9¢
- Implied chance
- 0.9%
- Return if right
- 11011.1%
- Spread cost
- n/a
If you put in $100
You get 11111.1 shares at 0.9¢ each.
YES wins: $11111.11 back, a profit of $11011.11. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Iranian diplomats "kicked out" of U.S. after ignoring order to leaveAxios · 1d ago
- UK remands 2 Iranians over alleged antisemitic terror plotDeutsche Welle · 2d ago
- Two Iranian men identified Manchester synagogue as site for alleged bomb plot, court hearsThe Guardian · 2d ago
- UK-Iranian dual national bailed after RAF Fairford incident arrestBBC News · 2d ago
- Two Iranians charged over alleged plot targeting Jewish community in UKAl Jazeera · 2d ago
- U.K. police accuse 2 Iranian men of planning terror attack on Jewish communityCBS News · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Another Iranian diplomat expelled by August 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.