0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 28.5¢
- Implied chance
- 28.5%
- Return if right
- 250.9%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 350.9 shares at 28.5¢ each.
YES wins: $350.88 back, a profit of $250.88. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $20.18 of that profit. Without it you would make $271.06.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 74.6¢
- Implied chance
- 74.6%
- Return if right
- 34.0%
- Spread cost
- 8%
If you put in $100
You get 134.0 shares at 74.6¢ each.
NO wins: $134.05 back, a profit of $34.05. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.84 of that profit. Without it you would make $36.89.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Baier pushes back on Trump's Strait of Hormuz claim: 'Traffic has slowed ... to a trickle'The Hill · 3h ago
- Iran's "cheap, affordable weapons" help maintain Strait of Hormuz threat, expert saysCBS News · 6h ago
- Oil’s Rally Stalls as Hormuz Deadlock Brings Flows Into FocusBloomberg · 6h ago
- Hormuz Stalemate Raises Risk of $120 OilYahoo Finance · 8h ago
- Iran says Strait of Hormuz under its control, rejects Trump claimsAl Jazeera · 8h ago
- Iran calls out Trump's ‘lies’ about US control over the Strait of HormuzFrance 24 · 9h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No." Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.